Travel: Quarterly Statement Q4 2021

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Disruptive variant

The new Omicron variant that appeared at the end of November 2021 has caused major disruption and concern, however, the impact is proving to be short lived with countries such as the UK reopening to double vaccinated travellers. This marks a step in the right direction as the world starts to pivot from the pandemic to endemic stage and learns to live with the virus. With vaccination rates exceeding 60% of the global population, there is still a long way to go before herd immunity, bearing in mind the low vaccination rates in emerging countries. The latest outlook for global travel and tourism is for global inbound spending to be 65% of 2019 levels in 2022.

Inflation fallout

Inflationary pressures are on the rise, stoked by the disconnects in global supply chains clashing with rebounding consumer demand, rising energy and food prices giving rise to higher costs of living across the globe. Already higher costs are being factored into flight and hotel pricing, which risks pricing consumers out of the market, amounting to a failure to tap into huge levels of pent-up demand.

Tied up in tape

Despite progress with vaccines and the existence of digital health solutions, global travel continues to be tied up in red tape when it comes to crossing national borders. For countries such as China that have achieved herd immunity through vaccination, there will be more pressure to retire the zero-COVID-19 policy. Removal of testing for double vaccinated travellers is expected to be ushered in, but not fast enough.

Game on

Global brands are fortunate enough to tap into international financial markets and benefit from deeper pockets than their SME counterparts. Companies in a secure solvent state over the mid term such as Booking Holdings are picking up M&A acquisitions to shore up their operations to drive cost efficiencies and deliver a seamless, consumer-centric experience. Simultaneously brands are keeping an ever watchful eye on the need to transform into a sustainable net zero emissions business.