Cigarettes and Alternative Nicotine Products in Middle East and Africa

August 2024

Tobacco industry in the Middle East and Africa is growing in both cigarettes and alternative tobacco products, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and South Africa to offer the largest opportunity. Cigarettes are demonstrating moderate growth depending on smoking tradition in the country and import processes. E-vapour products and heated tobacco are growing fast from smaller base, and their future in the region depends on further regulations and innovative products yet to be offered by manufacturers.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key findings

Rising prices see smokers looking for cheaper options

A common theme across many countries in the region has been consumers looking for lower-priced products or cheaper brands in cigarettes. This is in the face of high inflation, rising tobacco taxes, supply chain constraints and devaluation of local currencies. This has seen industry players removing underperforming brands from their portfolios, introducing cheaper lines and trying to keep a lid on any price rises.

Dynamic growth for PMI’s Iqos and HEETS in Tunisia

South Africa is the biggest market in the region for next-generation products like e-vapour and heated tobacco products, and is helping to drive the overall Middle East and Africa performance. However, Tunisia recorded the strongest growth in 2022, which was down to heated tobacco and PMI’s Iqos 3 Duo and HEETS products.

PMI subsidiary begins manufacturing cigarettes in Egypt

The monopoly over the manufacturing of cigarettes in Egypt by state-owned Eastern Co came to an end in 2022, when PMI subsidiary United Tobacco Company started manufacturing cigarettes locally, following PMI’s acquisition of a licence to make tobacco in Egypt. On the other hand, BAT decided to halt its activities in Egypt and exit the market.

Eastern Co expected to invest in heated tobacco production

Egypt’s Eastern Co is expected to launch local heated tobacco products over the forecast period. The company is planning to invest EGP300-500 million in a new heated tobacco production line in the country. This is expected to drive lower prices for heated tobacco products, especially as Eastern Co will likely use competitive price strategies to reach a wider segment of consumers and attract more Egyptians into the category.

Scope
Key findings
Middle East and Africa has further potential in cigarettes
Alternatives to cigarettes to offer more opportunities with wider distribution
2024 is expected to start an acceleration in cigarettes growth after resolving import issues
After growing rapidly from a small base, vapes and heated tobacco will stabilise at 15% growth
Countries with strong smoking cultures require stable imports to maintain cigarette volumes
The landscape of alternative tobacco products is shaped by local regulations
Shift to e-vapour products and illicit trade pose a threat to cigarettes volume
E-vapour products in the Middle East and Africa are benefiting from flexible regulations
Diverse products and strong distribution contribute to cigarettes’ success in the region
The pandemic and new regulations slowed down cigarettes’ growth in certain markets
E-vapour products are benefiting from their variety and consumers shifting from cigarettes
Changing regulations impact the growth of e-vapour products and heated tobacco
Channels dominated by illicit cigarettes offer limited opportunities for legal cigarette
Traditional channels dominates the scene while few countries venture into new channels
E-vapour products specialist stores are sprouting across the region
E-commerce comes into focus as a channel for great potential growth for alternative tobacco
Cigarettes market in each country is dominated by a few companies, mostly international
An Egyptian company Eastern Co is successfully playing along with four global giants
Most of top companies found their niche in few markets with the right offering
Cleopatra by Eastern Co is holding top position while international brands are more volatile
Philip Morris is leading heated tobacco while BAT is dominating within e-vapour products
Egypt will continue to grow in cigarettes due to strong smoking tradition
High-tar cigarettes in Algeria and premium cigarettes in the UAE will be on demand
Saudi Arabia will continue witnessing active shift from cigarettes to alternatives
Egypt and South Africa are set to grow in tobacco alternatives, if future regulations allow it
Algeria: Market Context
Algeria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Egypt: Market Context
Egypt: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Israel: Market Context
Israel: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Morocco: Market Context
Morocco: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Nigeria: Market Context
Nigeria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Saudi Arabia: Market Context
Saudi Arabia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
South Africa: Market Context
South Africa: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Tunisia: Market Context
Tunisia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
United Arab Emirates: Market Context
United Arab Emirates: Competitive and Retail Landscape

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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