Consumer Health: Quarterly Statement Q3 2020

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Restated forecasts for consumer health are slightly lower than pre-COVID-19 baselines

Euromonitor’s July 2020 forecast restatement has resulted in a slight narrowing of expected growth for 2020, as COVID-19 has forced changes in consumer behaviour that have suppressed interest in a variety of consumer health categories. The updated forecasts show a bounce-back to stronger growth in 2021 assuming COVID-19 recedes and a return to historic growth patterns starting in 2022.

Forecasts show divergent growth between regions

The forecast restatement has placed growth in 2020 very near to growth observed in 2019. Underneath this seeming stability, however, are disparate trends by region. North America is expected to have a banner year, with VDS in particular surging. China, on the other hand, will suffer through one of its worst years on record, with government controls sharply curtailing consumer purchasing.

Vitamins and dietary supplements (VDS) are seeing the strongest growth in the COVID-19 landscape

VDS sales are not expected to just perform well in North America; the industry is seeing strong interest across the world, as consumers are gravitating to products they perceive to help with broader prevention goals as well as narrower immunity support in the face of a spreading respiratory illness.

Changes in consumer behaviour are having large consequences on consumer health growth

Consumer life has changed dramatically since the beginning of 2020, and the new behaviours of the COVID-19 era are already having an impact on consumer health. Consumers are working and entertaining themselves at home, isolating from their communities, refusing to travel, cooking more, and thinking broadly about their health goals, shuffling the products they are demanding in the process.

Global macroeconomy is looking very weak, though it should not affect near-term prospects much

Though the global macroeconomy is facing its worst prospects since the Great Depression, the effects on the consumer health marketplace stand to be minimal, given that many of these products are highly income inelastic and are viewed as essential goods. As a result, consumer behaviour will continue to be a larger driver of growth in consumer health into the forecast period.