Global Market Overview of Coffee

November 2023

The briefing examines how the coffee commodity is performing globally and in the largest countries in terms of supply and production. The report also provides data and analysis on coffee price dynamics, as well as analysing trends across key commodity consuming industries.

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Key Findings

High susceptibility to climate change

Global coffee production occurs predominantly in regions highly susceptible to climate change effects, such as Latin America, Asia Pacific and Africa, where droughts, excessive rainfall and even frosts severely impact coffee yields. Additionally, the increase in global temperatures is contributing to the proliferation of pests and diseases, further threatening the coffee supply. In the 2022/2023 coffee season, these challenges intensified, underscoring the need for sustainable and resilient coffee farming practices.

Productivity growth

Global coffee production is dominated by emerging economies, with considerable potential for growth in agricultural productivity. To enhance resilience against climate change, governments are channelling investment into advanced irrigation technologies, with a growing emphasis on the adoption of more sophisticated agricultural methods.

Rise in speciality coffee and broader applications

The application of coffee is diversifying, evident in the broad array of both hot and cold coffee beverages available in coffee shops, growth in the ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee category, and the rise in at-home coffee consumption, driven by increased household penetration of coffee machines. Additionally, the expanding variety of speciality coffees, renowned for their unique flavours that attract discerning consumers, contributes to an even broader array of products for consumers to enjoy, further enhancing coffee consumption.

Increasing demand for fair trade coffee

The global coffee trade is increasingly focused on fair compensation for coffee-growing communities. From August 2023, the Fairtrade Minimum Price for coffee was raised significantly, up by 29% to a minimum of USD1.80 per pound from the previous set price of USD1.40. The rise mirrors growing demand for social responsibility and sustainable practices in the coffee industry, encouraging companies to offer fair wages and protect biodiversity in their supply chains.

Scope
Key findings
Key trends impacting the coffee market in 2023
Climate change challenges continue to negatively impact global coffee production
Coffee production will remain concentrated in Latin America, largely aimed at exports
Brazilian coffee output is anticipated to grow in 2023/2024 due to more favourable weather
Adverse weather conditions are set to hinder Vietnamese coffee production in 2023/2024
Dry weather and low productivity farming could lead to a decline in Indonesian coffee output
Coffee prices are expected to decline in 2024 due to rising supply and stabilising demand
In 2023, record-high Robusta prices contributed to a steeper increase in instant coffee prices
The cost of living crisis hinders coffee spending, particularly in Western Europe
Demand drivers for coffee across key buyer industries
Convenient, diverse RTD coffee offerings are set to boost consumption within the soft drinks
Surging home brewing and speciality coffee interest to spur coffee sales in the medium term
Rising incomes and tourism to drive restaurant coffee consumption over the medium term
Top 10 country profile: Brazil
Top 10 country profile: Vietnam
Top 10 country profile: Indonesia
Top 10 country profile: Colombia
Top 10 country profile: Ethiopia
Top 10 country profile: Honduras
Top 10 country profile: Uganda
Top 10 country profile: Peru
Top 10 country profile: India
Top 10 country profile: Guatemala
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