Regulatory Dynamics in Nicotine and Cannabis

June 2023

The impact of regulation across both the tobacco and the cannabis industries is immense, with the former experiencing ever tightening frameworks, often even on newer, less harmful forms of consumption, and the latter going through a period of rapid, if uneven, liberalisation. This theme examines the key drivers of regulatory mechanics in each industry, interrogating where one may influence the other in the longer term

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Key findings

Regulation is fundamental to both industries

Regulatory frameworks determine the performance of both industries and while they are ostensibly moving in contrasting trajectories, each industry will remain heavily shaped by its legislation, making compliance capability table stakes for involvement.

Tobacco regulation enters the endgame

Despite decades of increasingly restrictive measures, tobacco regulation continues to evolve with the likely expansion of birth year bans providing, for the first time, a concrete existential endpoint for the legal sale of cigarettes.

The illusion of cannabis legislative liberalisation

While cannabis legalisation is ongoing, its motivators are various and often relate as much to the control and depression of consumption as liberalisation. This is manifesting in restrictive proposed frameworks and the provision of access to narrowly defined consumer groups.

The increasing cross-pollination of vice regulation

Tobacco is the original engine of regulatory innovation and legislation in cannabis is heavily influenced by measures pioneered there. The public tend to want to see cannabis treated like tobacco and public health advocates frequently cite tobacco regulation as precedent.

Aligning future of nicotine and cannabis regulation

As higher-risk tobacco use declines and attitudes towards cannabis consumption evolve, regulation of each will increasingly align. In the longer term, societies will need to settle on treatment of the ongoing use of both, in the likely absence of significant risk to physical health.

Scope
Key takeaways
Exploring Regulatory Dynamics in Nicotine and Cannabis
Drivers of Regulatory Dynamics in Nicotine and Cannabis
Regulatory Dynamics in Nicotine and Cannabis uncovered
Regulators and public see tobacco and cannabis as legitimate targets for intervention
Major areas of mutual regulatory activity between tobacco and cannabis
Regulation will remain a constituent element of the tobacco and cannabis industries
Generational bans signal an existential endpoint for combustible tobacco
New Zealand’s birth year ban presages society’s exit strategy for tobacco
Manufacturers must diversify and seek to clarify nicotine’s future role
Cannabis is becoming normalised…to a point
Germany’s proposed cannabis association law evidence of guarded approach to regulation
Cannabis industry is learning that going mainstream does not equal being embraced
Significant interplay between tobacco and cannabis regulation
Ongoing regulatory innovation influences beyond tobacco
Tobacco’s present can point to cannabis’s tomorrow
Nicotine and cannabis regulation to diverge before aligning
Ongoing regulatory innovation influences beyond tobacco
In the longer term, differential product sets may mandate fewer regulatory restrictions
Key takeaways
Regulatory Dynamics in Nicotine and Cannabis: How to navigate
Evolution of Regulatory Dynamics in Nicotine and Cannabis
Questions we are asking

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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