Euromonitor International updated the Tissue and Hygiene Forecast Model in July 2024, applying the latest macroeconomic consensus to review 2024-2028 category projections. This report reviews top line changes to this outlook, indicating the main challenges faced by the retail tissue and hygiene industry, examining the impact of price inflation on category performance, and reviewing the recent reporting on industry leaders from public trading updates.
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This report comes in PPT.
Moderation of inflation pressure and consumer resilience in volume consumption support a marginal upgrade on tissue and hygiene forecast growth in value and volume terms across 54 forecast model markets combined in the July 2024 update compared to the original view published in February 2024. Stronger volume performances in baby nappies/diapers, menstrual care and personal wipes in key markets such as the US, China, Brazil and India due to an improved macro outlook and market environment are main contributors to the upgrade.
Despite a slightly lifted outlook, inflation remains the largest contributor to the forecast growth in retail value sales in current value terms. Despite inflation moderation, downside risks remain dominant, per Euromonitor’s forecast scenarios, due to rising geopolitical tensions, commodity uncertainty and soft global real GDP growth compared to 2023 and pre-pandemic levels, adding caution to the short-term forecast for most elastic hygiene segments and some developing markets.
As businesses shift away from margin-centric strategy that is led by pricing hikes to reignite more balanced growth, the long-term strategic reality of the global tissue and hygiene industry is twofold: growing volume market share and reaching more consumers in select, high-potential emerging markets of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, while sharpening premium offers and price/package mix in developed Europe and North America.
With price sensitivity and commodity uncertainty stretching into the second half of 2024, a relatively slow half-year for product innovation has been characterised by improved value-tier offering to harness loyalty of lower-income consumers and premiumisation in high-margin hygiene segments focusing on skin health, performance and usage occasions targeting.
This is the aggregation of retail and away-from home tissue and disposable hygiene products as well as Rx/reimbursement adult incontinence.
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