Euromonitor International’s Soft Drinks Forecast Model expects low single-digit volume growth over the 5-year forecast period. Pricing across soft drinks categories remains high, but is expected to moderate or plateau in the second half of 2023. Improvement relative to Q1 is driven by brighter GDP forecasts in the US and increasing consumer mobility in China, while retailer pressure and consumer fatigue are likely to limit pricing action in the second half of the year.
This report comes in PPT.
Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model expects low single-digit volume growth for soft drinks across 54 markets over 2022-2027, aligning closely with the November publication baseline. The outlook in Western Europe and Asia Pacific has been revised downwards slightly, due to slower household income growth and higher category pricing in soft drinks.
In North America and Western Europe, the industry is seeing substantial increases in value sales in current terms, while volume sales growth is well below historical averages. The disparity between value and volume performance will not be sustainable over the mid-term, with both retailers and consumers likely to take action against further increases, driving higher private label share and growth of hard discounter and other value-based channels.
Commodity price pressures have eased somewhat, particularly in the area of energy and packaging inputs. Sugar prices, meanwhile, remain extremely high, owing to poor weather and climate events in producer nations. Brighter GDP forecasts in the US, and improving consumer mobility in China provide cause for optimism, with inflation expected to moderate over the second half of the year.
The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo and other major suppliers in the soft drinks industry reported record revenue and stable volume performance in the first quarter of the year. Smaller, targeted marketing campaigns and high-value functional innovations will be a focus in the second half of the year, with an emphasis on affordability and revenue growth management through packaging and mix.
This is the aggregation of the following categories; Carbonates, Fruit/vegetable juice, Bottled water, Functional drinks, Concentrates, RTD tea, RTD coffee and Asian speciality drinks.
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