The World Market for Fresh Food

February 2021

This report is a global overview of the fresh food industry, examining and comparing the performance of fresh food categories across regions and markets. It explores 5-year forecasts for each category and identifies five key trends driving major developments, including in-depth analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the fresh food industry worldwide.

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Key Findings

Heeding healthy eating’s importance

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated to consumers that eating healthily really is a matter of supreme importance; those with poor health who contracted the virus were more likely to suffer negative outcomes. While vaccinations offer hope, a psychological legacy of the pandemic will be that many consumers continue to look to food to ensure health for the next “it will never happen” health crisis.

Rediscovering the kitchen

Restrictions on consumer movements (eg lockdowns, social distancing restrictions) meant eating occasions shifted into the home and cooking increased, with a positive impact on fresh food sales. While such restrictions may end if vaccinations succeed, the economic impact of the pandemic will likely have a longer-lasting impact here – less disposable income means less eating out.

Going online

COVID-19 accelerated (already growing) e-commerce grocery sales, as consumers’ ability to visit stores became limited and, in some cases, curtailed. Alongside greater use of modern grocery retailers’ facilities and third party delivery services, direct-to-consumer and subscription models also grew, especially as suppliers pivoted once their sales to foodservice were reduced as restrictions hit home.

Considering animals in the food chain

Plant-based alternatives received a boost as the pandemic highlighted human reliance on animal protein (as the virus’s origins became known). Closures of meat processing plants through COVID-19 infections reinforced this.

Looking for local

Motivations behind looking for local grew during the pandemic, with considerations around food security also coming into play. Consumers saw vulnerabilities in supply chains and seeking local became a way of ensuring that food would be there, while also meeting any demand for comfort, nostalgia and supporting the local economy.

Scope
Examining five trends shaping fresh food
COVID-19: impact on fresh food
Total sales volume turns negative thanks to pandemic-driven restrictions
Fruit and vegetables continue to dominate global consumption
APAC and MEA most dynamic; North America to retain its sweet tooth
Vegetables and fruit sales growth ahead
Population growth and regulatory moves power top growth markets
Pandemic reinforces larger stores’ strengths
COVID-19 themes and their impact on fresh food
Examining five trends shaping fresh food
Healthy eating boosts fresh food retail sales
COVID-19 causes cooking to grow, driving sales
Online grocery sales surge in 2020
Case study: big and small both look to DTC
Pandemic creates more scrutiny of human consumption of animals
Localisation confers increased feelings of security
Case study: CrowdFarming
Fresh food under the COVID-19 scenarios
The future: health-driven demand over economic difficulties
Health through food supports forecast growth
Outlook suggests fresh food success
Global snapshot of eggs
Global snapshot of fish and seafood
Global snapshot of fruits
Global snapshot of meat
Global snapshot of nuts
Global snapshot of pulses
Global snapshot of starchy roots
Global snapshot of sugar and sweeteners
Global snapshot of vegetables
Regional snapshot: Asia Pacific
Regional snapshot: North America
Regional snapshot: Latin America
Regional snapshot: Western Europe
Regional snapshot: Middle East and Africa
Regional snapshot: Eastern Europe
Regional snapshot: Australasia
Definitions

Fresh Food

Fresh Food refers only to fresh uncooked and unprocessed foods (packaged and unpackaged). Packaged sugar products and natural sweeteners (e.g. brown sugar, table sugar, molasses) are also included. For Fresh Food, we research total sales across distribution channels including retail, foodservice and institutions. For a selected 18 markets, we have a breakdown of total fresh food sales according to the following formats: • Retail • Foodservice sales • Institutional sales Retail Retail sales is defined as sales through all legal establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. Retail sales excludes sales to hotels, restaurants, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition excludes the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg grilled chicken/meat/fish bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. We estimate sales through the following channels: Modern Grocery Retailers • Supermarkets • Hypermarkets • Discounters • Convenience stores • Forecourt retailers Traditional Grocery Retailers • Independent small grocers • Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists • Other grocery retailers (morning/speciality/open/wet/farmers’ markets, stalls and kiosks, etc) Non-grocery retailers • Health and beauty specialist retailers • Other non-grocery retailers Non-store retailers • Homeshopping • Internet retailing • Vending • Direct selling Foodservice Foodservice sales are defined as sales TO consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. In other words, this means that the foodservice volumes track sales of all fresh food going into restaurant kitchens, regardless of what the restaurant actually does with that food. Foodservice outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semi-captive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. • Retail refers to foodservice units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. • Leisure refers to foodservice units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. • Travel refers to foodservice units based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Institutional sales Institutional sales is defined as sales to captive foodservice units that serve captive populations such as in hospitals, schools, prisons, military camps, hotels, hostels, nursing homes, homes for elderly people, religious houses, etc.

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