The US ports strike impacts international shipments and may have significant effects on the US economy. Prolonged disruptions risk causing significant shipment and supply delays for US manufacturers and increase logistics costs. Retailers and consumers, meanwhile, face potential supply disruptions during the busy shopping season, which could cause higher inflationary effects in Q4 2024.
An improving supply outlook and muted demand have eased pressures in the commodity markets. In 2024, weaker manufacturing activity in key markets is set to limit price growth for energy and metals, while robust crop forecasts should curb agrifood price increases.
Growing political and economic tensions are leading to supply chain diversification efforts, with new regional trade hubs emerging in Asia, Europe and the Americas. However, it remains unclear if new manufacturing hubs can fully replace China in global supply chains due to China's dominance in the hi-tech goods sector and underdeveloped supporting industries in other countries.
First months of 2024 saw a year-on-year easing in many commodity prices, as soft global demand weighed on energy prices and prospects of adequate crop supply capped agrifood price growth. However, geopolitical shocks sparked turbulence in the oil market and drove up gold prices, while rising supply concerns fuelled a rally in copper.
The ongoing cost-of-living crisis is expected to impact consumer demand in 2024. To counter this, companies can focus on B2B sales channels, particularly in the offices and healthcare sectors, which are forecast to maintain steady revenue growth.
Rising geopolitical tensions and economic multipolarity are adding to trade restrictions, shifting the flows of global trade and investment, and hindering economic growth. Against the backdrop of this new global reality, over the long term, companies and countries will continue to follow a globalisation reset strategy, with economic diversification and supply chain security being the key priorities.