Over the forecast period, current value growth rates for small local grocers in the US are expected to be low, with marginal declines anticipated at constant 2023 prices. In 2024, lingering inflation, even if much reduced from the heights of 2022, is expected to lead consumers to often favour low prices over other qualitative factors when shopping for groceries.
While co-operatives may not hold the economic might of major grocery retailers, they are a model to watch out for in the forecast period, because their mission resonates with consumers’ interest in wellness, sustainability, and supporting local agriculture. Co-ops are also evolving into more sophisticated business models.
Farmers’ markets, a physical retail space where farmers sell their goods directly to consumers, and on-farm markets, where freshly grown produce is sold to consumers directly from the farm, continue to be supported in the US, like food co-operatives, by consumers’ interest in local ingredients, sustainable agriculture, and alternatives to mass-produced food. In 2024, the US Department of Agriculture listed nearly 7,000 farmers’ markets and over 1,700 on-farm markets across the country.
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Small local grocers are mostly independent retail outlets (with a selling space of under 400 square metres), kiosks, market stalls or street vendors, owned by families and/or run on an individual basis, and with a primary focus on selling food/beverages/tobacco and other groceries. Small local grocers also includes ethnic grocery stores that specialize in foreign brands and food types, health food stores, confectioners/newsagents/tobacconists (CTNs), food & drink souvenir stores, legally registered mobile shops that are run out of a truck, and regional specialty stores. Retail sales from farmers markets, farms, vineyards, or similar producers are also included in small local grocers. Outlets located within wet markets in Southeast Asia (often located in government-owned multi-story buildings) should be counted as separate outlets.
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Small Local Grocers research and analysis database.
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